Short term price analysis:
Total market cap behaviour
So it finally happened – the looming breakdown of bitcoin below $7k and overall market slump. We have been talking about it for the past month or so and the scenario we kept predicting seems to be unraveling.
One note: below numbers for total market cap are from Tradingview and has a discrepancy of around $8 billion to CMC data.
The total market cap seems to be dropping to our predicted zone of $162 billion – it stooped all the way to the current $178B before (data by Tradingview).
Right now, there is no significant support zone to stop the bleeding before the aformentioned $160 billion.
I would argue that total market cap chart is the most important one to pay attention to as it is a leading force and direction picker for all coins, bitcoin included.
As you can see below, Fear & Greed Index is still in the extreme fear zone with chances of dropping even lower being significant. Sentiment of the market is important element when assessing the future behaviour.
BTC/USD Price Analysis December 17th
Bitcoin is sitting at its old support zone of $6894 and if it fails to defend it, it will be very likely that a drop to $5k is next on the cards.
This sentiment and analysis is echoed by Twitter analysts:
However, there is still some hope as pointed out by this Twitter analyst:
Below is our long-term Bitcoin price prediction for 2019 and beyond.
As the largest crypto currency on the market, the long-term Bitcoin forecast is a highly debated topic. Opinions and forecasts couldn’t be more different.
Which assessment is correct and how will the Bitcoin price develop in the future?
Bitcoin general facts
Bitcoin (BTC) launched its Genesis Block in January 2009. The open source project was founded by an unknown person or group under the name Satoshi Nakamoto.
Bitcoin’s goal is to enable users to store or transfer money to others without relying on centralized third parties such as financial institutions or governments. People should regain full control over their assets.
Since its inception, Bitcoin has attracted much attention and has been praised for its potential to compete with VISA as a global payment option.
After Bitcoin’s value increased almost continuously over 5 years, the first damper came. It gradually turned out that limited network capacity was becoming a problem.
Since then, scalability, like with many other blockchains, has been a burning issue. During the bull run, transaction fees also rose rapidly, making Bitcoin increasingly unattractive. Especially in the micro-payment sector, fees of sometimes US$ 40 made smaller transactions inefficient.
Bitcoin solved the problem with Segregated Witness (SegWit). The SegWit network upgrade (Segregated Witness) was carried out on 23 August 2017. It significantly increases the capacity of the Bitcoin blockchain and improved its position against competing high throughput blockchain technologies. Bitcoin was also one of the first blockchains to implement a second-level scaling solution with the Lightning network. The Lightning network is generally considered to be the second half of the solution to Bitcoin’s SegWit first time scaling issues.
Resource: Find out the easiest way to buy bitcoins here.
Bitcoin forecast: What do the experts say?
Opinions on Bitcoin and the long-term Bitcoin forecast differ widely. The following is a list of opinions of some (alleged) blockchain experts and famous personalities on Bitcoin’s price development:
- Bill Gates: The Microsoft boss has never made a secret out of his views on Bitcoin. Gates doesn’t want to give exact data or numbers, but in his opinion Bitcoin will sooner or later end up at US$0. This means that he believes the price will implode and Bitcoin will crash. His reason for this radical assessment is that Bitcoin, as an asset class, does not produce anything that would justify a countervalue. Therefore, in his eyes, it is a speculative thing that will eventually get lost. Joe Davis, head of Vanguard’s investment strategy group, has a similar attitude. For him, Bitcoin is not an attractive store of value due to its high volatility.
- Kenneth Rogoff: Rogoff is a professor at Harvard University and former head of the International Monetary Fund. In a CNBC interview, he commented on the Bitcoin forecast and gave a personal assessment for 2028, when he said BTC would be worth only about $100. He, too, argues similarly to Gates and bases his Bitcoin forecast on the relatively limited use of BTC as a means of transaction. In his opinion, Bitcoin would hardly be considered an attractive transaction instrument except for money laundering or tax evasion.
- Cameron Winklevoss: The Winklevoss twins Cameron and Tyler are well-known personalities in the Bitcoin scene. Within a very short time, they were able to generate net assets of over US$1 billion. Cameron Winklevoss expects the Bitcoin price to be US$320,000 in 10 to 20 years.
- John Pfeffer: The Pfeffer Capital partner did not give an exact timetable for his Bitcoin forecast. He believes that BTC could exceed US$700,000 if it replaces gold as a store of value. He explained why this number is so important by a simple calculation. Pfeffer estimates that $1.6 trillion worth of gold bars will be held privately. On the other hand there are 18 million Bitcoin, which in his opinion will be in circulation at this time. This would result in a minimum price of US$ 90,000 per Bitcoin. This value could then continue to rise over time to eventually end up at US$700,000. Pfeffer’s assessment would only prove true, however, if Bitcoin would actually replace gold as a store of value.
- John McAfee: Security software developer John McAfee attracted a lot of attention with his Bitcoin forecast for 2020. His estimate of US$1 million for 1 BTC is not only very high, but he seems so convinced that he considers everyone who disagrees to be idiots. For the next 1 to 2 years he can even imagine that 1 BTC could be worth over US$2.6 million. McAfee has been criticized more often in the past especially for aggressively valuing the assets that he trades himself.
- BayernLB: A study by Bayerische Landesbank at the end of 2019 suggests that the Bitcoin price could rise to US$90,000 in the following year. This statement has caused a great deal of sensation in the crypto world, as for the first time a respected German institute has let itself be carried away by a forecast of the Bitcoin price. The basis of this price forecast is the raw material analysis technique “Stock-to-Flow”. The price of a Bitcoin is expected to rise sharply due to the Bitcoin halving.
Bitcoin price prediction 2020 – 2024
Now that we looked at what experts and personalities have commented on the Bitcoin forecast, an evaluation based on mathematics and algorithms follows:
- Longforecast.com: Bitcoin’s forecast is made over a period of 5 years. According to the calculations the Bitcoin price will experience some fluctuations until 2023, but the general trend will be continuously rising. In July 2023, 1 BTC will be worth up to US$60,369.
- Walletinvestor.com: The trend here seems to be exactly the opposite. Bitcoin’s forecast is much more negative. In the next 6 years the Bitcoin will lose continuously in value, according to the estimate. Until June 2024 the price for 1 BTC will fall to 660 US$ on average.
Conclusion on the Bitcoin price prediction
No one can be sure where the Bitcoin price will march or crash. The forecasts listed by experts and institutions are well-founded and comprehensible.
Everything is possible in the crypto industry, in all directions, in the shortest possible time – every investor should always include this in his investment decisions.