Short term price analysis:
Total market cap behaviour
So it finally happened – the looming breakdown of bitcoin below $7k and overall market slump. We have been talking about it for the past month or so and the scenario we kept predicting seems to be unraveling.
One note: below numbers for total market cap are from Tradingview and has a discrepancy of around $8 billion to CMC data.
The total market cap seems to be dropping to our predicted zone of $162 billion – it stooped all the way to the current $178B before (data by Tradingview).
Right now, there is no significant support zone to stop the bleeding before the aformentioned $160 billion.
I would argue that total market cap chart is the most important one to pay attention to as it is a leading force and direction picker for all coins, bitcoin included.
As you can see below, Fear & Greed Index is still in the extreme fear zone with chances of dropping even lower being significant. Sentiment of the market is important element when assessing the future behaviour.
ADA/USD Price Analysis
Our analysis from 15 days ago is still the most likely scenario, you can read it below.
Here is the current chart of ADA:
And this is our comment and analysis from December 2nd which played out to the letter. Should ADA fail to hold this level, next stop down is $0.026, a support level ADA traded around back in December 2018.
On a 4H ADA/USD timeframe, you can clearly see how ADA fell out of a horizontal channel between $0.039 and $0.044 and is now trying to recouperate that zone. Coincidentally, $0.039 is a sturdy support/resistance and that level will lend a lot of impact to short-term ADA price action, depending on how the battle for it plays out.
Since the whole market lost its breath, I would expect ADA to slide back to $0.032 in a slow, sideways movements.
Below is our long-term ADA forecast.
What is the Cardano outlook for 2019 and the following years? Many people are currently asking themselves this question. The ambitious company is still young, but has a lot of expertise and big plans for the future. How will this affect the price and will Cardano be able to meet its timetable?
Cardano was founded by Charles Hoskinson, among others, who was also instrumental in laying the foundations for Ethereum. According to Hoskinson, Cardano is the 3rd generation of blockchain technology. While Bitcoin was the first generation and Ethereum the second, Cardano will build on it and improve its vulnerabilities. The project focuses on the development of advanced software tools.
Cardano is very innovative and has many advantages. These could provide the decisive competitive advantage and bring the project far forward and have a positive impact on the Cardano forecast:
- The platform uses Ouroboros, which is considered a new better version of the classic Proof of Stake.
- The Cardano Blockchain is designed to handle up to 10,000 transactions per second.
- Full compatibility with other blockchains.
- High network flexibility through improved infrastructure
- Improved security
- Extended functions for Smart Contracts
- More decentralisation through improved administration and control
Cardano (ADA) Roadmap
Cardano still has some goals for 2019 that they want to implement. In total, the roadmap consists of 5 phases, some of which have already started or have been almost fully implemented:
- Byron: Introduction of the Cardano-Mainnet. Users can trade and transfer the native token ADA. This phase has largely been completed, and developers are currently working on improving block storage. The Rust project is also under development and is supposed to be a tool box or open source library with different products.
- Shelley: To provide more decentralization by creating incentives for stakeholders and by improving networking and infrastructure. Network and wallet synchronization have also been improved in this phase.
- Goguen: This phase focuses on improving and integrating smart contracts. A new virtual machine, IELE, was developed to be faster, simpler and more secure at the same time.
- Basho: In this phase, development focuses on improving performance, security and scalability. It is still in the early stages of development.
- Voltaire: The final phase is about security, scalability, decentralization and above all sustainability. The introduction of a treasury system and governance should enable the community to manage itself autonomously and the blockchain to be self-sufficient.
Cardano Forecast: What do the experts say?
In general, the Cardano forecast seems to be positive. Most experts and algorithms agree that Cardano will increase in value:
- Smartereum: Smarteum’s Adam Web believes that Cardano is a stable crypto currency that should be included in your portfolio. He believes the ADA token will be worth up to US$2.50 by the end of 2020. The 5-year trend is even more positive. The price could exceed US$10 by then, the expert says. He justifies this assessment among other things with a forthcoming partnership between Cardano and Metaps Plus, one of the largest mobile phone providers in South Korea.
- UToday: It’s in the same groove as Smarteum. However, the long-term assessment is much more cautious. In five years, the price could be around US$5.
- Cryptoground: Here it is estimated that the price will rise by around 93 % towards the end of the next year and settle at US$ 0.16. In the long term, Cryptoground is convinced that the price will exceed US$ 1 in 5 years.
- WalletInvestor: This one is less optimistic. WalletInvestor assumes that the price will fall by up to 83 % to a price of US$ 0.0138 at the end of this year.
How strongly the ADA price will rise and over which period is still unclear. This depends in part on how the roadmap will be respected and whether Cardano will be able to keep to its schedule. The general market development also influences the Cardano price, of course, so there is no guarantee for the estimates.